The Review · Vol 11/25 · October 2025
A quiet market, but plenty to read between the lines
Written by Pawel Parafianowicz, Founder | Broker, Coral Realty Group ·
October did not deliver big swings or dramatic shifts. Instead, it moved at a slower, more considered pace. Activity softened, buyers took their time and sellers were selective about how and when they listed. Prices edged down again, inventory remained elevated and sales stayed muted. On paper, it was another calm month.
But calm does not mean simple, and it certainly does not mean directionless. Beneath the quiet surface, there are meaningful signals about how people are feeling, how they are behaving and where this market may be heading next.
Even with borrowing costs falling and prices sitting well below the 2022 peak, many households are still choosing to wait. Not because the opportunities are not there, but because the world around them feels uncertain. Conversations with clients over the past month have made that clear. People are watching the economy, their industries, their budgets and the broader global picture, and trying to understand how all of it fits into their next move.
This month’s report looks at the real sentiment. Not just what happened, but why people are behaving the way they are and what that means for buyers, sellers and long term strategy. See “Our Thoughts” below.
Buyer's or seller's market?
4.4 months of inventory: a buyer's market.
- Seller's under 2
- Balanced 2–3.5
- Buyer's 3.5–5
- Extreme buyer's 5+
Every October, months of inventory
October highlights
- 01Corner stores are making a comeback For the first time since 1959, Toronto will allow new corner stores and cafés in residential neighborhoods. The move aims to create more walkable communities, reduce car trips and bring everyday conveniences closer to home.
- 02iPro scandal triggers possible RECO takeover Ontario is considering taking control of RECO after an audit revealed major failures in handling iPro Realty’s missing 10 million dollars. The report says former registrar Joseph Richer acted alone, raising serious questions about oversight. With the province demanding answers within two weeks, this could become the biggest shakeup in Ontario’s real estate regulator in decades.
- 03Toronto rents hit a 40 month low Toronto rents fell 3.5 percent in October, the lowest level since 2022. More condo and purpose built rental supply is pushing prices down and landlords are offering incentives to fill units. Renters have more leverage now than they’ve had in years.
- 04Prices quietly slipped again Average prices dipped from September to October, something that has happened only a few times in more than twenty years. It is a subtle but important signal that buyer caution is still influencing the market, even as borrowing costs improve.
- 05Real life costs are shaping buyer psychology With groceries, restaurants and daily expenses feeling heavier than ever, even strong earners say their budgets are tight. That pressure, combined with a “wait for the bottom” mindset, is keeping many buyers cautious despite lower mortgage rates.
Average price
The Average Home Price declined from September to October, moving from $1,089,918 to $1,069,807, a decrease of 1.84%. At first glance it may feel like a rounding error, but this is far from normal. We have not seen the average home price fall from September to October since 2008. Before that, you would need to go back to 2002 to find another example. In other words, this kind of month to month drop almost never happens. On a YoY basis, the October average of $1,069,807 is down roughly 8.22% from the $1,165,660 posted in October 2024. For context, the YoY figure in September was -2.1%, and in August it was -3.6%, so the gap continues to widen as we move through the fall. November’s data will tell us whether this trend is accelerating or beginning to stabilize.
Average price
$1,069,807 ▼ −8.2% vs a year earlier ($1,165,660)
- 2025
- 2024
- 2023
Average price by type
HPI
The Home Price Index provides an apples-to-apples comparison of home prices in the city, filtering out distortions that can occur when a single month has an unusually high or low number of luxury sales. It reflects a more accurate measure of how prices have actually changed. According to this metric, Toronto home prices are down 9.65% year-over-year, with detached homes down 8.7%, semi-detached homes down 7.7%, and condos down 14.2%.
MLS® Home Price Index
Sales
October usually outperforms September in sales activity, so this rise fits the long standing pattern. September’s 2,063 sales rose to 2,351 in October, an increase of roughly 13.96%. That said, this is modest when compared to the 38.7% jump we saw over the same period in 2024. On a YoY basis, sales were down about 6.3% from the 2,509 recorded in October 2024. The 2351 sales posted last month now rank as the fourth lowest October on record, ahead of only 2008, 2022, and 2023.
Sales by type
New listings
New listings have declined from September to October every year for more than two decades, and last month followed the same pattern. September brought 7,182 new listings, which eased down to 5,988 in October as expected. On a YoY basis, those 5,988 new listings were up about 0.49% from the 5,959 recorded in October 2024. That figure was previously the second highest October on record, a position now overtaken by 2025. For context, the all time high for October new listings was set in 2020, when 7,823 sellers hit the market during the post lockdown surge in activity.
New listings by type
Active listings
Active Listings declined in October, which makes sense given that sales moved up while new listings moved down. We ended September with 10,653 active listings and finished October at 10,357, a 2.78% decline MoM. On a YoY basis, however, inventory is still rising. The 10,357 active listings recorded last month are up about 6.16% from the 9,756 recorded in October 2024. This now ranks as the sixth highest monthly total ever, on a list where seven of the top ten spots belong to months in 2025. The overall trend in active listings is slowly drifting downward, but inventory remains at historically elevated levels.
Homes for sale by type
The bigger picture
Homes sold every October, 1996 to 2025
Average condo apartment price, by year
Condo prices are back near 2021 levels.
Our thoughts
The biggest theme in today’s market is not falling prices. It is confidence. Many people who would normally be active buyers are taking a pause, and the reasons behind that are incredibly relatable.
A lot of households are feeling unsure about the direction of the economy and their own industries. Even people with strong, stable jobs are telling us they feel more cautious than they have in years. A lower mortgage rate helps, but it does not erase the feeling that the next twelve to twenty four months are a bit unpredictable. When life feels uncertain, it is natural to slow down on major decisions, even if the math technically works.
The cost of living in Toronto also feels heavy for many families. This comes up in conversations with clients week after week. Groceries, restaurants, childcare, transportation and simple day-to-day expenses all feel noticeably more expensive. Even higher income earners are feeling squeezed. Inflation shows up most clearly every time someone goes grocery shopping, and the weakened Canadian dollar makes nearly everything imported cost more. When households are already stretched, taking on a larger financial commitment can feel daunting, regardless of where interest rates sit.
On top of that, there is a growing belief online that prices may fall further. When enough people share that view, it starts to shape behaviour in the real world. Buyers hold back. Sellers hesitate. Activity slows. It becomes a cycle that feeds on itself, even when underlying fundamentals suggest a more balanced picture.
All of this has created a calmer market, but calm does not mean weak. Immigration remains high, housing demand in the GTA is structural and the supply pipeline is tightening every single month. These are the forces that shape long term value, and they have not changed. What we are experiencing now is a transitional period, not a broken one. These moments often create some of the best opportunities for strategic buyers and clarity for motivated sellers.
The Toronto market today is thoughtful, not frozen. Buyers are being careful, not absent. The fundamentals that matter remain intact, and the decisions made in quieter markets often end up being the smartest ones long term.
If you are thinking about your next step but are unsure how the current environment fits into your plans, the best place to start is a clear, grounded conversation about your goals, your numbers and your timeline. We are here for exactly that.
Source: TRREB. Figures as published in October 2025's data, sent November 21, 2025. Market commentary is general information, not advice for your situation.