Listings rise, prices slide: Toronto’s spring reset!

There’s no sugarcoating it—the HPI is pointing down, inventory has hit historic highs, and buyer sentiment is about as shaky as we’ve seen in years. Add in tariff uncertainty, a volatile stock market, and growing job losses in Ontario—like the cancellation of Honda’s EV plant, GM shift cuts, and tech sector layoffs—and it’s no surprise confidence has dried up. These are real economic pressures, and they’re filtering directly into the housing market.

Yes, we’re almost certainly getting a Bank of Canada rate cut on June 5 (mark your calendars), but one cut—likely just 25 basis points—isn’t going to move the needle much. We’re caught in a broader rate cycle, and until borrowing costs come down more meaningfully, affordability will remain the biggest hurdle for buyers. Even with falling prices, monthly payments are still out of reach for many, thanks to the lingering effects of high rates and a punishing stress test. A reduction or temporary removal of the stress test would have a far greater impact on affordability than a token rate cut.

We’re heading into what could be a very slow summer, especially for sellers. But for first-time buyers, this might be one of the best opportunities in years: less competition, more inventory, and motivated sellers. If you’ve got your financing in place, you’re in the driver’s seat.

So what turns the market around? In our view, it comes down to confidence and affordability. Investors—particularly in the condo space—likely won’t return in force until rates dip below 3%, which could be 6–12 months away. Immigration-driven demand will help, but that’s a longer-term driver. In the short term, freeholds will lead the recovery. These are primarily end-user purchases, and some core neighbourhoods have barely flinched during this slowdown. As sentiment shifts, freehold homes will be the first to appreciate—and they’ll move fast. Pent-up demand has been building for nearly two years, and once momentum returns and prices begin to tick up, FOMO will kick in—and when it does, hesitation quickly turns into bidding wars.

Buyers -> For first-time homebuyers, we believe the market will likely hit its lowest point within the next 12 months—if it hasn’t already. If you’re planning to stay put for three years or more, now’s a solid time to buy; trying to pinpoint the exact bottom is nearly impossible and not worth the stress. For families, consider aligning your buying and selling to occur within the same market conditions to maintain stability in this unpredictable environment.

Sellers -> In today’s market, it’s wise to sell before you buy to avoid potential complications. Presentation is critical—small improvements can set your property apart and make it the top pick for buyers. Work with an experienced selling agent who understands the nuances of this climate; this isn’t the moment to opt for a discount service when expertise can make all the difference.

Investors -> Looking for predictability in real estate right now? You might have better luck chasing a Trump pump. Between NVDA, TSLA, Palantir, Robinhood, and whatever meme stock is trending next on X, there seems to be more certainty in buying the dip after a presidential tweet than timing a cash-flowing condo in downtown Toronto.

That said—if you’re still real estate-inclined, focus on value-add opportunities: secondary suites, laneway homes, or properties you can reposition while you wait out this rate cycle. Just make sure the numbers actually work, because right now, hope isn’t a strategy—but holding cash might be.