The Review · Vol 02/25 · February 2025
Condos galore, sales no more: Toronto’s 2025 plot twist!
Written by Pawel Parafianowicz, Founder | Broker, Coral Realty Group ·
February 2025 has thrown Toronto’s housing market into a whirlwind of uncertainty, with political upheaval and economic jitters shaking things up. From tariff threats south of the border to a stalled Canadian parliament and a prime minister on his way out, the backdrop couldn’t be more chaotic.
Amid all this chaos, sales are down big time from last year, prices are hanging in there with barely a wiggle, new listings are up a touch but took a rare step back from January, and active listings—especially condos—are stacking up fast, giving buyers more to chew on.
Buyer's or seller's market?
5.1 months of inventory: an extreme buyer's market.
- Seller's under 2
- Balanced 2–3.5
- Buyer's 3.5–5
- Extreme buyer's 5+
Every February, months of inventory
February highlights
- 01Active listings surge Active listings are ballooning across Toronto, reaching some of the highest February levels in years—think well above the decade’s norm. With supply outpacing sales, especially in condos, it’s tilting the scales toward buyers who’ve got more options than ever to pick from.
- 02Rents take a dip Toronto’s rental market is cooling off, with rents starting to slide as more listings hit the scene. It’s a shift that’s giving tenants some breathing room but putting the squeeze on landlords who were counting on those steady high returns.
- 03Tariffs and stock market jitters Trump’s tariff threats—25% hit on Canadian exports—are rattling nerves, and the stock market’s taken a dive too, with the TSX tumbling in early 2025 on trade fears. It’s a double whammy that’s got buyers and sellers second-guessing their next move.
- 04Rate cuts on the horizon The Bank of Canada eased rates in January to 3%, but with uncertainty piling up, we’re expecting another cut at their March 12th, 2025, meeting. Lower rates could spark some action, though for now, borrowing costs and trade risks are keeping things on edge.
- 05Sales hit a historic low February 2025 sales have slumped to one of the quietest levels in over a decade, a sharp drop from the energy we’ve seen in past years. Buyers are holding back, and with all the uncertainty swirling, it’s like the market’s taking a timeout to figure things out.
Average price
The average home price in Toronto showed minimal year-over-year movement, edging up 1.36% from $1,072,528 in February 2024 to $1,087,077 in February 2025, nearly identical to February 2023’s $1,071,043, yet still well below the February 2022 peak of $1,210,889. Detached homes stood out with a notable 7.56% increase, rising from $1,657,026 to $1,782,262, signaling persistent demand despite growing inventory. Condo prices, however, remained largely unchanged over three years—$724,632 in February 2025, $726,608 in 2024, and $728,271 in 2023—reflecting stability in this segment. Still, the HPI suggests a steeper decline, closer to 5% year-over-year, indicating underlying softness not fully captured in these averages.
Average price
$1,087,077 ▲ +1.4% vs a year earlier ($1,072,528)
- 2025
- 2024
- 2023
Average price by type
HPI
The Home Price Index provides an apples to apples comparison of home prices in the city and reflects a more accurate change in prices. According to this metric Toronto home prices are down -1.34% (YoY), detached -1.77% (YoY), semi-detached +0.66% (YoY) and condos down -5.04% (YoY).
MLS® Home Price Index
Sales
Sales fell to 1,540, down 21.9% from 1,971 in February 2024, marking a notable year-over-year decline. Typically, sales rose 22.5% from January to February (2015–2024 average), but this year’s 11.1% increase from January’s 1,386 signals buyer caution amid economic pressures. Detached sales dropped 27.6% to 411 from 568, semi-detached fell 19.9% to 145 from 181, and condos declined 18.1% to 830 from 1,014. This is the weakest February since 2009’s 1,472, hinting at a sluggish market.
Sales by type
New listings
New listings saw a slight dip to 4,641 from January’s 4,737 but a 6.8% rise from February 2024’s 4,347, with condos leading at 2,682 units. Historically, this sits below the 10-year February average of around 5,287 (2015–2024), and well off highs like 4,889 in 2022 or 4,706 in 2021, suggesting a cautious pace compared to past peaks. Sellers may be pausing due to uncertainties—sluggish 2025 sales (down 21.8% year-over-year), potential Trump tariffs unsettling the economy, and lingering inflation concerns—yet the uptick from last year still reflects a decent supply flow, buoyed by Toronto’s persistent housing demand.
New listings by type
Active listings
Active listings in Toronto reached 7,809 in February 2025, up 12.8% from January’s 6,920 and a hefty 55.7% jump from February 2024’s 5,017, with condos dominating at 4,977 units. Historically, this exceeds the 10-year February average of roughly 5,000 (2015–2024), surpassing recent years like 4,110 in 2023 or 2,785 in 2022, though it’s shy of the 7,811 peak in 2020.
Homes for sale by type
The bigger picture
Homes sold every February, 1996 to 2025
Average condo apartment price, by year
Condo prices are back near 2021 levels.
Our thoughts
We see two distinct dynamics playing out in Toronto’s market right now. First, the stability in prices for detached and semi-detached homes is a bright spot—it’s like these segments are standing firm despite the storm. That resilience suggests there’s still a core group of buyers out there, ready to invest in low-rise properties even with all the uncertainty swirling around. But the steep drop in sales and that rare dip in new listings from January tell a different story: people are nervous. With sales off to a sluggish start this year, whispers of tariffs shaking up trade, and economic jitters like inflation and interest rates in the mix, it’s no surprise folks are taking a step back. It feels like a collective pause, waiting for some clarity before making big moves.
Then there’s the condo side of things, where the picture’s a bit murkier. Inventory is piling up—nearly six months’ worth now—and sales are down, especially for those smaller, investor-focused units that used to fly off the shelf. That’s a red flag for anyone. Yet, larger condos, like two-bedroom units, are holding their own, which we think points to a growing trend: families and first-timers are leaning toward urban living as detached homes slip further out of reach. Rental prices are cooling too, with more listings giving tenants leverage and potentially softening rates, which could squeeze landlords already feeling the pinch. Our take? The market’s not crashing—it’s recalibrating under pressure. Buyers have a window to negotiate, especially in condos, while sellers might need to play the timing game. Looking ahead, if these uncertainties linger into spring, we could see more inventory build-up, but a resolution—like a trade deal or political stability—might just spark a rebound. For now, it’s a bumpy ride, but Toronto’s market has weathered storms before, and we’re optimistic it’ll find its footing again soon!
Buyers -> For first-time homebuyers, we believe the market will likely hit its lowest point within the next 12 months—if it hasn’t already. If you’re planning to stay put for three years or more, now’s a solid time to buy; trying to pinpoint the exact bottom is nearly impossible and not worth the stress. For families, consider aligning your buying and selling to occur within the same market conditions to maintain stability in this unpredictable environment.
Sellers -> In today’s market, it’s wise to sell before you buy to avoid potential complications. Presentation is critical—small improvements can set your property apart and make it the top pick for buyers. Work with an experienced selling agent who understands the nuances of this climate; this isn’t the moment to opt for a discount service when expertise can make all the difference.
Investors -> Opportunities exist, particularly with properties where you can add value, such as through secondary suites or garden/laneway homes. However, with rents trending downward, the financials may not always align perfectly, so focus on deals that offer long-term potential and ensure the numbers work for your strategy.
Source: TRREB. Figures as published in February 2025's data, sent March 11, 2025. Market commentary is general information, not advice for your situation.